/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/FONT#0=BAXL30/FONT#1=BAXM30/FONT#2=BASB30/FONT#3=SUB/FONT#4=SUP/FONT#5=BASL35/FONT#6=NGR25/FONT#7=MATH30/FONT#8=FIX25/FONT#9=GRKB30
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u1


␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αRBARGAINING WITH THE SOVIETS FOR THE BENEFIT OF HUMAN RIGHTS

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAt␈α
present␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈α
government␈α
is␈αholding␈α
some␈α
hundreds␈α
of␈α
would-be␈α
scientist␈αemigres
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αhas␈αimprisoned␈αmany␈αof␈αthe␈αleading␈αdissidents.␈α On␈αthe␈αother␈αhand,␈αwe␈αare␈αnot␈αletting␈αthem
␈↓ α∧␈↓buy␈α∂a␈α∂Cyber␈α∂76␈α∞computer␈α∂made␈α∂by␈α∂Control␈α∞Data␈α∂Corporation.␈α∂ The␈α∂deal␈α∞is␈α∂being␈α∂held␈α∂up␈α∞on
␈↓ α∧␈↓account␈α∪of␈α∩objections␈α∪that␈α∪the␈α∩Soviets␈α∪will␈α∪get␈α∩a␈α∪strategic␈α∪advantage␈α∩from␈α∪such␈α∪a␈α∩powerful
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer,␈α⊃and␈α⊃the␈α⊃agreement␈α⊃that␈α⊃the␈α∩computer␈α⊃will␈α⊃be␈α⊃used␈α⊃only␈α⊃for␈α∩non-military␈α⊃purposes
␈↓ α∧␈↓cannot␈α∞be␈α∞enforced.␈α∞ Many␈α∞opponents␈α∞of␈α∞such␈α∞technology␈α∞sales␈α∞are␈α∞also␈α∞motivated␈α∞by␈α∂their␈α∞bad
␈↓ α∧␈↓record on human rights.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈αis␈α
a␈αproposal␈α
for␈αa␈α
vulgar␈αtrade.␈α We␈α
let␈αthem␈α
buy␈αthe␈α
Cyber␈α76␈α
and␈αpossibly␈αa␈α
second
␈↓ α∧␈↓Cyber␈α⊂76␈α⊂in␈α∂exchange␈α⊂for␈α⊂clearing␈α⊂the␈α∂books␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α∂long-standing␈α⊂would-be␈α⊂emigres␈α⊂and␈α∂the
␈↓ α∧␈↓current␈αcrop␈αof␈α
arrested␈αdissidents.␈α This␈α
is␈αnot␈αa␈αproposal␈α
that␈αwe␈αlet␈α
them␈αbuy␈αthe␈αcomputer␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓hope␈α∞for␈α
their␈α∞good␈α
will.␈α∞ Such␈α
hopes␈α∞have␈α
been␈α∞disappointed␈α
before,␈α∞and␈α
will␈α∞be␈α
disappointed
␈↓ α∧␈↓again.  The proposal is for an explicit swap - public or secret.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSuch␈α
a␈α∞deal␈α
is␈α
justified␈α∞on␈α
several␈α
grounds.␈α∞ The␈α
justification␈α
is␈α∞based␈α
on␈α
a␈α∞certain␈α
ideas
␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈αthe␈αpolitical␈αsituation␈αin␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αUnion␈αand␈αto␈αa␈αlesser␈αdegree␈αon␈αsome␈αideas␈αconcerning
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
world␈αpolitical␈α
situation.␈α The␈α
essence␈αof␈α
the␈αidea␈α
is␈αthat␈α
their␈αpolitical␈α
situation␈αis␈α
such␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓we␈α∂can␈α∂buy␈α∞large␈α∂moral␈α∂concessions␈α∞with␈α∂small␈α∂material␈α∞concessions,␈α∂because␈α∂Soviets␈α∂who␈α∞have
␈↓ α∧␈↓little␈α
enthusiasm␈α
for␈α
their␈α
moral␈α
position␈α∞of␈α
persecuting␈α
dissidents␈α
and␈α
refuseniks␈α
will␈α∞value␈α
our
␈↓ α∧␈↓material␈α⊃concession␈α⊃more␈α⊃highly␈α⊃than␈α⊃holding␈α⊃to␈α⊃it.␈α⊃ Some␈α⊃of␈α⊃them␈α⊃will␈α⊃even␈α∩exaggerate␈α⊃the
␈↓ α∧␈↓importance of the material concession.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈α
We␈αwill␈α
relieve␈α
the␈αsuffering␈α
of␈α
the␈αrefuseniks␈α
and␈α
dissidents␈αwhose␈α
emigration␈αwe␈α
secure.
␈↓ α∧␈↓While␈αthey␈αare␈αrelatively␈α
few,␈αthe␈αgood␈αdone␈αthere␈α
is␈αclear.␈α All␈αthe␈α
other␈αgains␈αor␈αlosses␈αfrom␈α
this
␈↓ α∧␈↓or␈αany␈αother␈αpolicy␈αare␈αproblematical.␈α The␈αdirect␈αrelief␈αof␈αsuffering␈αshould␈αalways␈αbe␈αconsidered
␈↓ α∧␈↓worthwhile.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈αThe␈αstrategic␈α
loss␈αis␈αminimal.␈α
 There␈αis␈αno␈α
magic␈αin␈αa␈α
Cyber␈α76.␈α Any␈α
computation␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓can␈α∂be␈α∂done␈α∞on␈α∂a␈α∂Cyber␈α∂76␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∂done␈α∞at␈α∂somewhat␈α∂greater␈α∂cost␈α∞on␈α∂computers␈α∂of␈α∂their␈α∞own
␈↓ α∧␈↓manufacture␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂Soviets␈α∂already␈α⊂have.␈α⊂ As␈α⊂I␈α∂understand␈α⊂it,␈α⊂the␈α⊂Cyber␈α∂76␈α⊂is␈α⊂to␈α⊂be␈α⊂in␈α∂an
␈↓ α∧␈↓unclassified␈α∞location,␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞bootlegging␈α∞of␈α∞even␈α∞a␈α∞shift␈α∞a␈α∞day␈α∞will␈α∞hardly␈α∞make␈α∞an␈α∞important
␈↓ α∧␈↓difference␈αin␈αSoviet␈αmilitary␈αpotential.␈α Free␈αaccess␈αto␈αthe␈αpurchase␈αof␈αCyber␈α76␈αcomputers␈αwould
␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈αa␈α
more␈αsubstantial␈α
concession.␈α Then␈α
it␈αmight␈α
become␈αworth␈α
their␈αwhile␈α
to␈αadapt␈α
their␈αmajor
␈↓ α∧␈↓bomb or missile programs to it.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∀remaining␈α∀considerations␈α∃depend␈α∀on␈α∀the␈α∀following␈α∃model␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∃Soviet␈α∀political
␈↓ α∧␈↓situation:

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3.␈αCommunism␈αas␈αan␈αideology␈αin␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αUnion␈αis␈αin␈αa␈αstate␈αof␈αadvanced␈αdecay.␈α While
␈↓ α∧␈↓Brezhnev␈αmight␈α
like␈αto␈αrestore␈α
some␈αof␈αthe␈α
features␈αof␈αStalinism,␈α
he␈αcan't␈αrestore␈α
the␈αenthusiasm
␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α
Communists␈αin␈α
the␈αSoviet␈α
Union␈α
and␈αelsewhere␈α
felt␈αfor␈α
Stalin.␈α
 Millions␈αof␈α
people␈αwere␈α
ready
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
die␈α
for␈α
Stalin␈αor␈α
kill␈α
or␈α
torture␈αat␈α
his␈α
command.␈α
 Brezhnev␈αinspires␈α
no␈α
enthusiasm␈α
in␈αthe␈α
Soviet
␈↓ α∧␈↓Union␈αor␈αelsewhere,␈α
nor␈αcan␈αCommunism␈α
generate␈αsuch␈αenthusiasm␈α
on␈αbehalf␈αof␈α
another␈αleader.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Other␈αCommunist␈αmovements,␈αsuch␈αas␈αthe␈αChinese,␈αare␈αalso␈αdecaying,␈αbut␈αthe␈αloss␈αof␈αenthusiasm
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αfanaticism␈αis␈αnot␈αso␈αfar␈αadvanced.␈α (It␈αhas␈α
advanced␈αquite␈αa␈αlot␈αin␈αChina,␈αsince␈αthe␈αfirst␈α
draft
␈↓ α∧␈↓of this note was written).
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u2


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈αWhat␈αholds␈αthe␈αregime␈αtogether␈αis␈αprivilege,␈αnationalism,␈αreal␈αand␈αimaginary␈αideas␈αabout
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
defects␈α
of␈α
the␈α
Free␈α
World,␈α
and,␈α∞among␈α
many␈α
people,␈α
contempt␈α
for␈α
the␈α
weakness␈α
of␈α∞the␈α
Free
␈↓ α∧␈↓World.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈α∩One␈α∪of␈α∩the␈α∪most␈α∩striking␈α∪characteristics␈α∩of␈α∪the␈α∩Soviet␈α∪system␈α∩is␈α∪its␈α∩lack␈α∪of␈α∩dignity
␈↓ α∧␈↓evidenced␈α
by␈α∞(a)␈α
the␈α∞special␈α
distributions␈α∞of␈α
scarce␈α
consumer␈α∞goods␈α
to␈α∞privileged␈α
people,␈α∞(b)␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓foreign␈α
currency␈α∞stores␈α
that␈α∞ordinary␈α
Russians␈α∞are␈α
not␈α
allowed␈α∞to␈α
enter,␈α∞(c)␈α
the␈α∞contrast␈α
between
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
tourists␈α
who␈α
are␈α
free␈α
to␈α
come␈α
and␈αgo␈α
and␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈α
citizens␈α
(even␈α
high-ranking␈α
ones)␈αwho␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓not,␈αthe␈α
secrecy␈αthat␈αforces␈α
editors␈αto␈α
pretend␈αthat␈αcensorship␈α
decisions␈αare␈α
their␈αown␈αand␈α
scientists
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
pretend␈α
that␈α
they␈α∞have␈α
gotten␈α
sick␈α
or␈α
have␈α∞too␈α
much␈α
work␈α
to␈α
go␈α∞to␈α
a␈α
meeting␈α
to␈α∞which␈α
they
␈↓ α∧␈↓have␈αbeen␈αlooking␈αforward␈αfor␈αyears,␈α(e)␈αthe␈αcheap␈αbragging␈αof␈αthe␈αnewspapers,␈αtheir␈αfawning␈αon
␈↓ α∧␈↓officialdom,␈α⊃and␈α⊃their␈α∩unmotivated␈α⊃changes␈α⊃of␈α∩position␈α⊃when␈α⊃the␈α∩line␈α⊃changes,␈α⊃and␈α∩(f)␈α⊃their
␈↓ α∧␈↓previous␈αdeals␈α
with␈αthe␈αWest␈α
-␈αtrading␈α
dissidents␈αand␈αJews␈α
for␈αwheat␈α
and␈αother␈αadvantages.␈α
 The
␈↓ α∧␈↓control␈αof␈α
the␈αpress␈αprevents␈α
sentiment␈αagainst␈α
these␈αand␈αother␈α
indignities␈αfrom␈α
snowballing,␈αbut
␈↓ α∧␈↓when this sentiment finally breaks loose, it will make a major contribution to decisive change.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
present␈α∞importance␈α
of␈α∞this␈α
lack␈α∞of␈α
dignity␈α∞is␈α
that␈α∞our␈α
intuitions␈α∞about␈α
what␈α∞kinds␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓deal␈α
are␈α
too␈α
undignified␈α
to␈α
be␈α
possible␈α
tend␈α
to␈α
be␈α
incorrect.␈α
 As␈α
long␈α
as␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈α
press␈α
can␈α
ignore
␈↓ α∧␈↓the indignity, almost anything is possible - provided it has other advantages.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈αThe␈αregime's␈αmistreatment␈αof␈αJews␈αin␈αgeneral,␈αthe␈αrefuseniks␈αin␈αparticular,␈αand␈αdissidents
␈↓ α∧␈↓lacks␈α⊗moral␈α∃self-confidence.␈α⊗ This␈α∃is␈α⊗shown␈α⊗by␈α∃its␈α⊗many␈α∃inconsistencies␈α⊗and␈α⊗the␈α∃frequent
␈↓ α∧␈↓concessions␈α∀when␈α∪there␈α∀is␈α∀some␈α∪outside␈α∀reason␈α∪to␈α∀make␈α∀concessions.␈α∪ The␈α∀Soviet␈α∀regime␈α∪is
␈↓ α∧␈↓somewhat␈α⊃susceptible␈α⊂to␈α⊃moral␈α⊂pressure,␈α⊃but␈α⊂in␈α⊃contrast␈α⊂to␈α⊃other␈α⊂regimes␈α⊃susceptible␈α⊃to␈α⊂moral
␈↓ α∧␈↓pressure␈α∩(such␈α∩as␈α⊃the␈α∩Tsarist␈α∩regime␈α⊃before␈α∩it␈α∩or␈α⊃British␈α∩colonial␈α∩regimes),␈α⊃it␈α∩is␈α∩much␈α⊃more
␈↓ α∧␈↓susceptible to material pressure, however weak.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOne␈α∪reason␈α∀relatively␈α∪weak␈α∀material␈α∪pressure␈α∀often␈α∪succeeds,␈α∀is␈α∪that␈α∀exaggerating␈α∪the
␈↓ α∧␈↓importance␈α∀of␈α∀Western␈α∃concessions␈α∀is␈α∀one␈α∃of␈α∀the␈α∀main␈α∃ways␈α∀Soviet␈α∀scientists␈α∃and␈α∀officials
␈↓ α∧␈↓unconvinced␈αby␈α
the␈αregime's␈α
moral␈αposition␈αcan␈α
struggle␈αfor␈α
what␈αthey␈αwould␈α
like␈αto␈α
do␈αanyway.
␈↓ α∧␈↓People␈α∞who␈α∞do␈α∞not␈α∞dare␈α∞argue␈α∞that␈α∞it␈α∞is␈α∞immoral␈α∞to␈α∞hold␈α∞Levich␈α∞or␈α∞Lerner␈α∞or␈α∞Shcharansky␈α∞or
␈↓ α∧␈↓Bukovsky␈α
will␈αargue␈α
the␈αimportance␈α
to␈αthe␈α
Soviet␈α
Union␈αof␈α
whatever␈αlure␈α
is␈αoffered␈α
to␈α
let␈αthem
␈↓ α∧␈↓go.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT7.␈α∂Whenever␈α∂the␈α∂Soviet␈α∂Union␈α∂makes␈α∂a␈α∂trade␈α∂of␈α∂principle␈α∂for␈α∂material␈α∂gain,␈α∂it␈α∂damages
␈↓ α∧␈↓their␈α∩political␈α∩position␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩world␈α∩and␈α∩the␈α∩position␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩Communist␈α∩parties␈α⊃everywhere.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Fortunately,␈α∂the␈α∂leaders␈α∂cannot␈α∂allow␈α∂themselves␈α∂to␈α∂see␈α∂this,␈α∂because␈α∂to␈α∂recognize␈α∂it␈α⊂would␈α∂cast
␈↓ α∧␈↓doubt on the whole mechanism of privilege that their well-being depends on.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT8.␈α
For␈α
these␈αreasons,␈α
they␈α
may␈αgo␈α
for␈α
the␈αproposed␈α
trade␈α
of␈αthe␈α
refuseniks␈α
and␈αdissidents␈α
for
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αcomputer.␈α We␈α
can␈αrely␈αon␈αSoviet␈α
scientists␈αto␈αargue␈αfor␈α
the␈αimportance␈αof␈αthe␈α
computer␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓minimize␈αthe␈α
importance␈αof␈α
hanging␈αon␈αto␈α
the␈αrefuseniks.␈α
 Just␈αas␈αlong␈α
as␈αthe␈α
Soviet␈αnegotiators
␈↓ α∧␈↓don't␈αpersonally␈αlose␈αface,␈αthe␈αfact␈αthat␈αthe␈αregime␈α
will␈αlose␈αface␈αcan␈αbe␈αminimized.␈α If␈αany␈αkind␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓subtle␈α
bribe␈α
can␈αbe␈α
offered␈α
to␈αthe␈α
negotiator,␈α
such␈α
as␈αpublicity␈α
to␈α
the␈αeffect␈α
that␈α
he␈αhas␈α
outsmarted
␈↓ α∧␈↓the West, this may also help.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT9.␈αThey␈αmay␈αeasily␈αconvince␈αthemselves␈αthat␈αclearing␈αthe␈αboard␈αof␈αthe␈αoutstanding␈αcases␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓refuseniks␈α∃and␈α∃dissidents␈α⊗will␈α∃wipe␈α∃out␈α⊗the␈α∃problem.␈α∃ Of␈α⊗course,␈α∃such␈α∃deals␈α⊗only␈α∃further
␈↓ α∧␈↓undermine␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈αmoral␈α
position,␈α
so␈α
that␈αthe␈α
next␈α
outbreak␈α
will␈αinvolve␈α
even␈α
more␈αpeople␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓will be fought even more halfheartedly.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u3


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT10. If they demand secrecy, it should be agreed to.  The truth will come out anyway.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT[To␈αpropose␈αsuch␈αa␈αdeal␈αnow␈αmay␈αbe␈αparticularly␈αworthwhile␈αif␈αit␈αhas␈αa␈αchance␈αto␈αhead␈αoff
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αtrial␈αof␈αShcharansky␈αon␈αtreason␈αcharges.␈α This␈αtrial␈αmight␈αbe␈αsomewhat␈αof␈αa␈αwatershed␈αin␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓mistreatment␈α∃of␈α∃dissidents].␈α∃ Since␈α∃they␈α∃decided␈α∃not␈α∃to␈α∃kill␈α∃Shcharansky,␈α∃it␈α∃wasn't␈α∃such␈α∀a
␈↓ α∧␈↓watershed.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPerhaps,␈α⊂such␈α⊃considerations␈α⊂should␈α⊃not␈α⊂be␈α⊂published␈α⊃in␈α⊂association␈α⊃with␈α⊂the␈α⊃names␈α⊂of
␈↓ α∧␈↓anyone␈α⊃who␈α⊃takes␈α⊃part␈α∩in␈α⊃the␈α⊃negotiation.␈α⊃ Otherwise,␈α∩the␈α⊃Soviet␈α⊃negotiators␈α⊃will␈α∩worry␈α⊃that
␈↓ α∧␈↓someone␈α∞will␈α∂accuse␈α∞them␈α∂of␈α∞being␈α∞outsmarted.␈α∂ Our␈α∞high␈α∂officials␈α∞should␈α∞be␈α∂willing␈α∞to␈α∂take␈α∞a
␈↓ α∧␈↓certain␈α∂amount␈α∂of␈α∞public␈α∂criticism␈α∂in␈α∞connection␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∞deal␈α∂without␈α∂explaining␈α∂themselves␈α∞too
␈↓ α∧␈↓much.␈α They␈αcan␈αbe␈αconfident␈αthat␈α
the␈αlong␈αterm␈αhumanization␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αpolitical␈α
situation␈αwill
␈↓ α∧␈↓outweigh any short term loss of face.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAs␈α∂a␈α∂general␈α∂policy,␈α∂we␈α∂should␈α⊂try␈α∂to␈α∂win␈α∂humanitarian␈α∂concessions␈α∂for␈α⊂individuals␈α∂and
␈↓ α∧␈↓groups␈αwith␈αspecific␈αpromises␈αand␈αspecific␈αthreats.␈α This␈αis␈αmuch␈αmore␈αfeasible␈αthan␈αgetting␈αthem
␈↓ α∧␈↓to implement the Helsinki agreement as a general policy - although we should press for that too.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTBesides␈αgovernment␈αactivity,␈αindividuals␈αand␈αnon-governmental␈αgroups␈αcan␈αwin␈α
concessions
␈↓ α∧␈↓by␈α
bargaining.␈α
 For␈α
example,␈α
at␈α
the␈αinternational␈α
conference␈α
on␈α
artificial␈α
intelligence␈α
that␈αwas␈α
held
␈↓ α∧␈↓in␈α
Tblisi␈α
in␈α
1975,␈α
we␈α
succeeded␈α
by␈α
threats␈α
of␈α
demonstration␈α
and␈α
promises␈α
to␈α
be␈α
good␈α∞in␈α
getting
␈↓ α∧␈↓them␈α∪to␈α∩accept␈α∪the␈α∪presence␈α∩of␈α∪a␈α∪leading␈α∩refusenik,␈α∪Alexander␈α∪Lerner␈α∩of␈α∪Moscow,␈α∪and␈α∩his
␈↓ α∧␈↓participation␈α∞in␈α
a␈α∞panel␈α
discussion.␈α∞ Perhaps␈α
our␈α∞businessmen␈α
should␈α∞be␈α
encouraged␈α∞to␈α∞help␈α
by
␈↓ α∧␈↓suggesting␈α∂that␈α∞their␈α∂sales␈α∞of␈α∂technology␈α∞are␈α∂more␈α∂likely␈α∞to␈α∂be␈α∞approved␈α∂if␈α∞they␈α∂can␈α∂show␈α∞that
␈↓ α∧␈↓there is also a humanitarian quid pro quo.

␈↓ α∧␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ α∧␈↓Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
␈↓ α∧␈↓Computer Science Department
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ α∧␈↓ARPANET: MCCARTHY@SU-AI

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓εThis draft of DEAL[S77,JMC] PUBbed at 10:16 on July 24, 1978.␈↓